Liz Stein and I met with a panel of specialists last week to better grasp the threat of orbital debris. Here are a few crucial points to remember. You can watch the complete webinar on our YouTube channel to learn more and see visualisations that explain ideas like the level of congestion on various orbital roadways and how we can create 3D models of orbital trash using ground observations!
Prime Movers Lab's Orbital Debris: Eliminating the Threat to Ensure a Safe and Secure Space Economy
Important Points to Remember
What kind of orbital debris should we be most concerned about? Orbital debris can range in size from enormous to small. Both are quite risky. To target both the top 50 list of big ones and the millions of bits, we need to treat this as a "and" problem.
Playing chicken! From the Department of Defense to start-ups, and from those who use publically available data to those who use their own, a variety of sources track debris. There is no unified means for operators to digest that data, decide how (or if) to respond to a probable collision, and then connect with the other object, whether it is a functioning satellite or an uncontrollable piece of junk. Globally, there is a lack of traffic management, and there is no "law" governing who moves first at an approaching intersection. Slingshot Aerospace recently released a technology that allows satellite operators to communicate directly with one another.
We don't have enough information to make informed decisions. People argue on whether things can collide based on their own data. Because different sensors have distinct measurement uncertainty, data collected by one operator may differ from data collected by another. Because no one has the truth sensor, it's critical to pool these collision viewpoints. Aggregated data that is accessible to everyone eliminates the ability of any single source of information to influence or prejudice one's opinion about what happens in space. We talked about Privateer, a new start-up that bills itself as "Google Maps for space," and AstriaGraph, a crowdsourcing, participatory sensing network. These data are useful for locating additional items, determining less congested locations in which to deploy an asset, and identifying more congested places in which to clean up. (This is a note to our space debris cleaning firms!) Do you want to lend a hand? To create a crowdsourcing database through CitizenScience.gov, we need a US Government point of contact!
Existing debris remediation is fraught with difficulties. The debris may lack a gripping characteristic or (worse!) be unidentified (we have no idea what it is or how it looks). Furthermore, the debris is tumbling and unrestrained. Tugs that drive junk into the atmosphere to burn up or transport debris onto high "graveyard orbits" will have to spend propellant and time inspecting and maybe matching a craft's tumble before docking. (Note: don't dock to something that wasn't meant to be docked in the first place!)
We need classification, not just tracking. The assumption of spherical objects in tracking is insufficient in determining the strategy to debris removal. Currently, a craft is used to assess the debris up close before launching a second craft suited for the specific debris removal task. This is not sustainable in the long run. A trait-based classification approach for all of these anthropogenic space objects would characterise the market, allowing debris disposal companies to target clients more efficiently.
To determine the monetary value of debris removal, we must construct sustainability metrics. Orbital carrying capacity is a good example. A space traffic footprint, comparable to a carbon footprint, could be established. One could be paid a certain amount of money in exchange for returning a certain amount of capacity to orbit.
Get rid of your FOD! A tragedy of the commons is developing as a result of space junk. However, the entrance of Mega Constellations, which may be incentivized to maintain their own clean environment, may cause a shift in the air (...or space). As a result, they can continue to use their crafts until they reach the end of their design life, resulting in a higher return on investment.
Regulation can help to increase demand for orbital debris cleanup and mitigation, but it must be done in a way that does not stifle innovation. Our goal should be to ensure the long-term viability of the space environment, rather than being overly prescriptive about how to do it. A well-written, intelligent policy will provide for a range of options (for example, don't require assets to have propulsion to deorbit; instead, require asset removal if it becomes unmanageable).
We have the ability to defend ourselves today, but will we? "The tipping point" is not created by technology. We have the ability and are present. Our behaviour, acting with sustainability in mind, is the true tipping point. Not only smart rules, but possibly standard interfaces that enable for component and material mining in graveyard orbits, or spaceborne "landfills." We should make it a point to plan for reuse, recycling, and repurposing.
Moriba Jah's final plea: Get involved in space environmental activism by joining EyesOnTheSky.org!
Thank you to our Advisory Board.
A warm thank you to all of our panellists:
Mrs. Pearlie Dashiell Henderson Centennial Fellowship in Engineering | Dr. Moriba Jah Associate Professor | The University of Texas at Austin | Aerospace Engineering and Engineering Mechanics Department
Co-founder of Starfish Space, Austin Link
Carolyn Belle is the Director of Advanced Systems at Astroscale in the United States.
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