Indeed Bitcoin ( BTCUSD ) is far from being at its best shape as not onlt was it rejected last week on the 2D MA50 (blue trend-line) but the RSI did so also on a Resistance Zone holding since last March.

The pattern since the June low is a Falling Wedge and that won't seen to be able to break to the upside unless the price breaks above the 1D MA200 (red trend-line) which by the first week of January should enter the Falling Wedge . Only then, after breaking this trend-line that has been intact since December 31 2021, can we expect Bitcoin to turn bullish long-term. Until then, the top (Lower Highs trend-line) of the Falling Wedge poses as the next rejection point/ Resistance.

The only indication showing that there may be light down the tunnel for Bitcoin is the U.S. Dollar Index ( DXY ). This has been dropping significantly since September 26 and even though as you see on the chart they have a negative correlation, Bitcoin broke this after the FTX crash. With the Dollar continuing to drop, it would appear that when the crypto market gets past this fundamental effect of fear and uncertainty it left, it will shoot up aggressively to cover the lost ground to the upside.